Design of a predictive model to plan the logistic response to huaicos in the Huaycoloro stream in San Juan de Lurigancho

Project: Research

Project Details


San Juan de Lurigancho is the district with the largest population in Metropolitan Lima and is among the districts with the highest rate of infections according to the Ministry of Health, according to the National Center for Epidemiology, Prevention and Control of diseases of the Minsa, the district of San Juan de Lurigancho presented in September 2020, a total of 26,169 infections (TvPerú, 2020) At the national level, the month of August 2020 was the month with the highest infections nationwide in a week with 60,000 cases and in 2021 no one is perceived tendency to decrease infections (Essalud News, 2020). In addition to the pandemic, which occupies a priority of attention due to its geographical location, there is a recurring risk due to the effects of the rains that affect our country every summer (CanalN, 2021) and in San Juan de Lurigancho there is the Huaycoloro stream that extends through the urbanizations of Campoy, Zarate and Tres Compuertas. The effects of the rains and consequent huaicos have affected this stream for decades and especially with the presence of the El Niño phenomenon, as described by Carrera (2017), the country is vulnerable to this phenomenon. Only in economic losses El Niño 1982/1983 were $ 3,283 million (11.6% of GDP in 1983) and those of El Niño 1997/1998 were $ 3,500 million (6.2% of GDP in 1998). However, the economy is not the only one to be affected.
Effective start/end date1/04/2131/03/22


  • Humanitarian logistics
  • Information systems
  • Vulnerable population
  • Predictive analytics


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