Resuming Productive Diversification in the Post-COVID-19 Era

Current international trade theories oscillate between promoting the productive specialization of a country by taking advantage of its comparative advantages, or its diversification. Economies with abundant natural resources face this dilemma. The Theil index makes it possible to evaluate both characteristics in an export basket, and to corroborate the extent to which growth policies have strengthened specialization or diversification.

The trajectory of the price of commodities is seen as an influential variable, although the evidence suggests that the effects on various macroeconomic aggregates could be non-linear. The objective of this research is to estimate the effect of the price of mining commodities on productive diversification measured with the Theil index, through the use of non-linear models in the pre-pandemic scenario caused by COVID-19. In addition, it seeks to analyze to what extent this pandemic represents an opportunity for the diversification of the export basket in economies with abundant natural resources.