Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Emory Pablo Bazan Flores; Candice Maria Fe Gamarra Villanueva; José Antonio Taquía Gutiérrez; Yvan Jesus Garcia Lopez

doi:10.15488/15321

Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Emory Pablo Bazan Flores
, Candice Maria Fe Gamarra Villanueva
, José Antonio Taquía Gutiérrez
, Yvan Jesus Garcia Lopez

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Paper (Conference contribution) › peer-review

Abstract

This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy.
Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.

Translated title of the contribution	Modelo de Previsión de la Demanda y Optimización de Rutas para Mejorar la Oferta de una Pyme del Sector Panadería
Original language	American English
Title of host publication	Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector
Editors	David Herberger
Place of Publication	Leibniz, Hannover, Germany
Publisher	Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover
Pages	957 - 967
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Electronic)	2701-6277
ISBN (Print)	2701-6277
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.15488/15321
State	Published - 15 Dec 2023
Event	Conference on Production Systems and Logistics - Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study (STIAS), Stellenbosch, South Africa Duration: 14 Nov 2023 → 17 Nov 2023 Conference number: 2023 https://cpsl-conference.com/?page_id=1425

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2.
Publisher	Leibniz Universitat Hannover - Publish - Ing
ISSN (Print)	2701-6277
ISSN (Electronic)	2701-6277

Conference

Conference	Conference on Production Systems and Logistics
Abbreviated title	CPSL
Country/Territory	South Africa
City	Stellenbosch
Period	14/11/23 → 17/11/23
Internet address	https://cpsl-conference.com/?page_id=1425

Access to Document

10.15488/15321License: Other

Cite this

Bazan Flores, E. P., Gamarra Villanueva, C. M. F., Taquía Gutiérrez, J. A., & Garcia Lopez, Y. J. (2023). Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. In D. Herberger (Ed.), Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector (pp. 957 - 967). (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ). Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover . https://doi.org/10.15488/15321

Bazan Flores, Emory Pablo ; Gamarra Villanueva, Candice Maria Fe ; Taquía Gutiérrez, José Antonio et al. / Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. editor / David Herberger. Leibniz, Hannover, Germany : Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover , 2023. pp. 957 - 967 (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ).

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title = "Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector",

abstract = "This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy. Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.",

author = "\{Bazan Flores\}, \{Emory Pablo\} and \{Gamarra Villanueva\}, \{Candice Maria Fe\} and \{Taqu{\'i}a Guti{\'e}rrez\}, \{Jos{\'e} Antonio\} and \{Garcia Lopez\}, \{Yvan Jesus\}",

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doi = "10.15488/15321",

language = "American English",

isbn = "2701-6277",

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booktitle = "Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector",

note = "Conference on Production Systems and Logistics, CPSL ; Conference date: 14-11-2023 Through 17-11-2023",

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}

Bazan Flores, EP, Gamarra Villanueva, CMF, Taquía Gutiérrez, JA & Garcia Lopez, YJ 2023, Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. in D Herberger (ed.), Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. , Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover , Leibniz, Hannover, Germany, pp. 957 - 967, Conference on Production Systems and Logistics, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 14/11/23. https://doi.org/10.15488/15321

Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. / Bazan Flores, Emory Pablo; Gamarra Villanueva, Candice Maria Fe; Taquía Gutiérrez, José Antonio et al.
Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. ed. / David Herberger. Leibniz, Hannover, Germany: Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover , 2023. p. 957 - 967 (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Paper (Conference contribution) › peer-review

TY - GEN

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AU - Gamarra Villanueva, Candice Maria Fe

AU - Taquía Gutiérrez, José Antonio

AU - Garcia Lopez, Yvan Jesus

N1 - Conference code: 2023

PY - 2023/12/15

Y1 - 2023/12/15

N2 - This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy. Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.

AB - This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy. Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.

UR - https://www.repo.uni-hannover.de/handle/123456789/15441

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M3 - Paper (Conference contribution)

SN - 2701-6277

T3 - Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2.

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BT - Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

A2 - Herberger, David

PB - Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover

CY - Leibniz, Hannover, Germany

T2 - Conference on Production Systems and Logistics

Y2 - 14 November 2023 through 17 November 2023

ER -

Bazan Flores EP, Gamarra Villanueva CMF, Taquía Gutiérrez JA, Garcia Lopez YJ. Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. In Herberger D, editor, Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. Leibniz, Hannover, Germany: Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover . 2023. p. 957 - 967. (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ). doi: 10.15488/15321

Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Access to Document

Other files and links

Urban logistics applied to retail distribution of products and services

Cite this

Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

Urban logistics applied to retail distribution of products and services

Cite this