Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Emory Pablo Bazan Flores; Candice Maria Fe Gamarra Villanueva; José Antonio Taquía Gutiérrez; Yvan Jesus Garcia Lopez

doi:10.15488/15321

Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Título traducido de la contribución: Modelo de Previsión de la Demanda y Optimización de Rutas para Mejorar la Oferta de una Pyme del Sector Panadería

Emory Pablo Bazan Flores, Candice Maria Fe Gamarra Villanueva, José Antonio Taquía Gutiérrez, Yvan Jesus Garcia Lopez

Producción científica: Capítulo del libro/informe/acta de congreso › Articulo (Contribución a conferencia) › revisión exhaustiva

Resumen

This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy.
Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.

Título traducido de la contribución	Modelo de Previsión de la Demanda y Optimización de Rutas para Mejorar la Oferta de una Pyme del Sector Panadería
Idioma original	Inglés estadounidense
Título de la publicación alojada	Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector
Editores	David Herberger
Lugar de publicación	Leibniz, Hannover, Germany
Editorial	Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover
Páginas	957 - 967
Número de páginas	10
ISBN (versión digital)	2701-6277
ISBN (versión impresa)	2701-6277
DOI	https://doi.org/10.15488/15321
Estado	Publicada - 15 dic. 2023
Evento	Conference on Production Systems and Logistics - Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study (STIAS), Stellenbosch, Sudáfrica Duración: 14 nov. 2023 → 17 nov. 2023 Número de conferencia: 2023 https://cpsl-conference.com/?page_id=1425

Serie de la publicación

Nombre	Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2.
Editorial	Leibniz Universitat Hannover - Publish - Ing
ISSN (versión impresa)	2701-6277
ISSN (versión digital)	2701-6277

Conferencia

Conferencia	Conference on Production Systems and Logistics
Título abreviado	CPSL
País/Territorio	Sudáfrica
Ciudad	Stellenbosch
Período	14/11/23 → 17/11/23
Dirección de internet	https://cpsl-conference.com/?page_id=1425

Palabras Clave

Supply Management Improvement
Demand Forecasting
Clark-Wright
Route Optimization

Categoría OCDE

Ingeniería de producción

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

Este resultado contribuye a los siguientes Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible

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10.15488/15321Licencia: Otros

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Proceedings del evento

1 Terminado

Logística urbana aplicada a la distribución retail de productos y servicios
Taquía Gutiérrez, J. A. (Investigador principal)
Universidad de Lima
1/04/22 → 31/03/23
Proyecto: Investigación

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Bazan Flores, E. P., Gamarra Villanueva, C. M. F., Taquía Gutiérrez, J. A., & Garcia Lopez, Y. J. (2023). Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. En D. Herberger (Ed.), Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector (pp. 957 - 967). (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ). Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover . https://doi.org/10.15488/15321

Bazan Flores, Emory Pablo ; Gamarra Villanueva, Candice Maria Fe ; Taquía Gutiérrez, José Antonio et al. / Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. editor / David Herberger. Leibniz, Hannover, Germany : Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover , 2023. pp. 957 - 967 (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ).

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title = "Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector",

abstract = "This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy.Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.",

keywords = "Supply Management Improvement, Demand Forecasting, Clark-Wright, Route Optimization",

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Bazan Flores, EP, Gamarra Villanueva, CMF, Taquía Gutiérrez, JA & Garcia Lopez, YJ 2023, Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. En D Herberger (ed.), Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. , Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover , Leibniz, Hannover, Germany, pp. 957 - 967, Conference on Production Systems and Logistics, Stellenbosch, Sudáfrica, 14/11/23. https://doi.org/10.15488/15321

Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. / Bazan Flores, Emory Pablo; Gamarra Villanueva, Candice Maria Fe; Taquía Gutiérrez, José Antonio et al.
Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. ed. / David Herberger. Leibniz, Hannover, Germany: Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover , 2023. p. 957 - 967 (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ).

Producción científica: Capítulo del libro/informe/acta de congreso › Articulo (Contribución a conferencia) › revisión exhaustiva

TY - GEN

T1 - Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

AU - Bazan Flores, Emory Pablo

AU - Gamarra Villanueva, Candice Maria Fe

AU - Taquía Gutiérrez, José Antonio

AU - Garcia Lopez, Yvan Jesus

N1 - Conference code: 2023

PY - 2023/12/15

Y1 - 2023/12/15

N2 - This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy.Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.

AB - This research employs the Lean Six Sigma DMAIC methodology to address enhancing product distribution efficiency in a bakery chain. Following the diagnostic phase, demand forecasting models were developed using ARIMA and Holt Winter methods, with ARIMA demonstrating higher prediction accuracy.Furthermore, route mapping was conducted using the Clark-Wright algorithm. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as delivery time, distance traveled, and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) will be established for process control. Implementing these improvements aims to achieve more efficient product distribution management within the bakery chain.

KW - Supply Management Improvement

KW - Demand Forecasting

KW - Clark-Wright

KW - Route Optimization

UR - https://www.repo.uni-hannover.de/handle/123456789/15441

U2 - 10.15488/15321

DO - 10.15488/15321

M3 - Paper (Conference contribution)

SN - 2701-6277

T3 - Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2.

SP - 957

EP - 967

BT - Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

A2 - Herberger, David

PB - Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover

CY - Leibniz, Hannover, Germany

T2 - Conference on Production Systems and Logistics

Y2 - 14 November 2023 through 17 November 2023

ER -

Bazan Flores EP, Gamarra Villanueva CMF, Taquía Gutiérrez JA , Garcia Lopez YJ. Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. En Herberger D, editor, Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector. Leibniz, Hannover, Germany: Publish-Ing - Leibniz Universitat Hannover . 2023. p. 957 - 967. (Proceedings of the Conference on Production Systems and Logistics: CPSL 2023 - 2. ). doi: 10.15488/15321

Demand Forecast Model and Route Optimization to Improve the Supply of an SME in the Bakery Sector

Resumen

Serie de la publicación

Conferencia

Palabras Clave

Categoría OCDE

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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Proyectos

Logística urbana aplicada a la distribución retail de productos y servicios

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