Reducing Stockouts in FMCG Supply Chains through an Integrated Model of Replenishment, Forecasting and Supplier Management

Frequent stockouts in fast‑moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms erode service levels and profitability in volatile Latin‑American markets. Objective—This study developed and validated an integrated inventory‑management model that combines periodic‑review (RP) replenishment, Winters exponential smoothing and multicriteria supplier segmentation to curb stockouts. Methodology—A Peruvian snack manufacturer was analyzed; logistics KPIs were recorded, the model was simulated in Arena Simulator V16, and a pilot with two strategic suppliers validated field performance. Key Results—Simulation lowered the stockout rate from 18.2 % to 3.8 %, raised the fill rate from 81.8 % to 96.2 % and boosted capacity utilization by 28.1 % without extra cost. Pilot results confirmed on‑time deliveries improved from 96 % to 98 % and supplier fill rate from 84 % to 90 %. Conclusion—The model closes the research gap on integrated RP–forecasting–segmentation approaches in FMCG supply chains, offering a transferable, sustainable framework adaptable to other high‑variability industries.